Case: Bakkerij Royal

Better personnel planning based on weather expectations

Bakery & Lunchroom Royal is a cozy – and quirky – bakery café in Den Bosch. For several years they had been working with a system in which all transactions are stored. Based on this data, students from the JADS MKB Datalab, worked out a professional data model that predicts the influence of the weather conditions on turnover, and on personnel planning. This way, the bakery can achieve an optimal personnel planning.

 

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The challenge

For a bakery café, personnel planning is of great importance in controlling costs. It is also a determining factor for customer satisfaction: a customer who has to wait too long quickly becomes dissatisfied. Owner Jules Lauwerijssen heard that McDonalds bases its staff planning on the weather forecast. Would this also be feasible for Royal? He turned to the MKB Datalab to find out.

What we did

Students from JADS MKB Datalab analyzed transaction data from the past 5 years, to try to identify patterns in turnover linked to weather conditions. Can we predict turnover based on the weather forecast? Can we use this to better substantiate personnel planning? Can we reduce personnel costs and at the same time increase customer satisfaction?

The result

Based on this dataset, a form was created. If you fill in the weather forecast (temperature, sun and precipitation) for the next 3 days, the form will return an estimate of the turnover. Based on a fixed ratio of personnel costs to turnover, Royal knows how many personnel must be scheduled. A surprising finding was that up until a temperature of 25 degrees, turnover went up, but above that temperature turnover went down. Apparently, people find other activities more attractive when the weather gets too hot.

Better cost control and higher customer satisfaction thanks to data

“Thanks to smart data, we can better estimate how many staff we need to schedule based on the weather forecast. That is good for our cost control and for customer satisfaction.”

Jules Lauwerijssen, Royal Bakery and Lunchroom

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